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Standard & Poor's expects a mild recession in the euro area in the first half of 2012 and Thursday lowered growth forecasts for several countries.

In a report entitled "European Economic Perspective: The Return of the recession," the rating agency forecasts growth of 0.4% for the euro area next year, following 1.5% expected this year.It has revised its forecast to 0.5% growth for France in 2012 (against 0.8% previously), 0.6% for Germany (against 1%) and 0.1% for Italy (against 0.2%).

In 2013, growth would accelerate to 1.2% for the euro area to 1.3% for France, 1.5% for Germany, 0.5% for Italy and 1.0% for Spain (after + 0.3% expected in 2012).

"We now expect a mild recession in the first half of 2012 in the euro area, before a modest rebound in the second half of the year," wrote the chief economist at S & P for Europe, Jean-Michel Six.

"The impending recession threatening Europe was first found fertile ground in Spain, Portugal and Greece, but economic problems are spreading now in the heart of the euro area, France and Spain," says it.

Universal Music, a subsidiary of Vivendi, announced Friday the signing of a definitive agreement with Citigroup to buy back the recorded music industry of its British rival EMI for a total of 1.2 billion sterling (1.4 billion euros).

The operation, if it goes to completion, will allow the first record company to add to its global purse of music stars such as Coldplay and Katy Perry, but it may be a long review and detailed by the competition authorities.

"It is a historic acquisition for UMG (Universal Music Group) and an important step in preserving the heritage of EMI Music," said Lucian Grainge, CEO of Universal, in a statement.

The U.S. bank, the Financial Times on Friday, would end the deadlock by agreeing to make such commitments at his expense.

Also interested in the recorded music division of EMI, the billionaire Len Blavatnik, owner of Warner Music Group, was considered the favorite, but according to two people familiar with the discussions, he threw in the towel last week after the rejection by Citigroup's offer of a $ 1.5 billion.

The EU summit Sunday will not lead to a global solution. But behind the technical question of strengthening the EFSF lies a conflict between France and Germany on the new role of the ECB. Explanations. Euro

Europe is in a fog for two days a summit critical to its future. A senior European official said the Thursday night, there will be no complete agreement at the EU summit in Brussels on Sunday. The elements of discord between states include the level of discount on Greek debt to private creditors to impose on the recapitalization of banks and especially the role of the ECB in the context of strengthening the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF ). For in cettetempête that shakes the eurozone, the ECB can not imagine a savior.His "future ex-" chief economist Jürgen Stark has also referred to this Thursday, the ECB "can not solve the crisis" and does not want to get out of the mandate it has been set. However, it could have a role to play. Explanations.

She refuses to be involved in strengthening the EFSF

One of the bones of contention between France and Germany is the role of the ECB in the rescue of the euro. Paris wants the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) obtain a banking license to go with her to refinance. Leverage and the ability to fund intervention limited to 440 billion euros that can lift the markets. Option rejected by the institution headed by Jean-Claude Trichet and Germany do not want the ECB to lend to the Fund in exchange for government bonds as collateral in trouble. Because it would weaken its balance sheet and would require a recapitalization.But Berlin refused to give his hand to the pocket.

Germany therefore recommends allowing the EFSF to act as guarantor to facilitate the obtaining of loans by fragile states. The fund could then provide up to 20% to 30% of their credits would be granted. In other words, the fund would be used to support a loan volume of 3 to 5 times higher in the private sector. This scenario would not involve the ECB.

But according to Cyril Regnier, strategist at Natixis, the track of the transformation of the EFSF bank is not completely abandoned. "I wait for the official release of Trichet's refusal to confirm," he said beforehand. "The ECB reversed its decision several times. She was sure she would not buy debt of struggling countries.Since it did massively. "

She claims to have done his share of work

In fact, the Frankfurt institution has already made several decisions that were outside its remit. Since May 2010, it bought bonds of troubled countries for a total of 165 billion euros, 45 billion for Greece. In exchange, it has hundreds of billions of euros of liquidity available to banks that have struggled to find on the market conditions as favorable. In his last speech as president of the institution, Jean-Claude Trichet has even granted two new lines of credit volume limit of one year, an unusually long. They also pledged 40 billion euros through the repurchase of a portion of their assets, especially real estate.The aim is to allow banks sufficient liquidity to meet their financial deadlines near term. The ECB is already far out of its responsibilities in the crisis. "For now, this is the only institution in Europe to have done something concrete," said Jean-Louis Mourier same.

She wants to return to its basic objectives

For over the events we tend to forget them. "The Bank has a mission, is to ensure price stability. This is too often overshadowed at this point in public perception," said Juergen Stark. This is because he refused these missions outside the mandate of the ECB's chief economist has decided to resign. He also pressed the point home by stating that if the ECB went further, "we not only ruin our reputation, but the ECB would also be overwhelmed by the task, and its independence threatened."Today, the objective of the ECB is that the EFSF is promptly voted and she stops to buy the debt of fragile states. But without really knowing if it will happen quickly. "It takes a lot of precautions. It gave no date for example on the end of the buyback," said Cyril Regnier.

The ECB should it have a stronger role in the future?

Opinion is divided on its role in the institutions. "The ECB is currently the only entity capable of ending the crisis," said Cyril Regnier reminder that the ECB has the weapon of the printing press. And he said, if the institution refuses to EFSF banking license, it could ultimately end up losing. "The EFSF can not buy as many bonds that the ECB did, simply because it has limited resources.And if it's not effective, then the ECB will continue to buy the debt of the States, "says strategist at Natixis. But according to Jean-Louis Mourier, the ECB has no additional role as that is his. "It's not really within its jurisdiction to be the savior of Europe. She has already done much. "He said the key lies rather in a" greater federalism "across Europe.

Greece is expected to remain mired in recession next year, complicating his efforts budget as the country is still waiting for the payment of the next tranche of aid that would allow it to avoid bankruptcy.

The Greek economy will contract by 2.5% next year, following a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) of 5.5% expected this year, according to the 2012 budget proposal sent to the country's parliament Monday.

These forecasts are darker than those used to calculate the final in Athens bailout 109 billion euros, which was banking on a return to a growth of 0.6% next year.

The Greek government admitted Sunday he would miss this year's deficit targets that were assigned by its international donors.Athens anticipates a deficit of 8.5% of GDP in 2011, while the EU and the IMF at the planned 7.6%.

The Socialist government of George Papandreou has already announced new austerity measures to try to reduce the budget deficit next year to 6.8% of GDP in 2012 to an original target of 6.5% .

BANKS COULD PAY MORE

The fiscal slippage of Athens could complicate the ongoing negotiations on the second Greek bailout, analysts said.

"In the political debate in Germany, this will probably be used to request the renegotiation of the entire bailout and greater involvement of private investors," said Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg Bank.

If the "troika" of donors in Greece – European Union, International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank – concluded in their report due this month that the financing needs of Greece will be greater than expected due of the recession, banks may be required to contribute more than the discount of 21% in July.

The "troika" continue for the time to peel the accounts of Greece and has not given the green light to the payment of a new tranche of eight billion euros vital to prevent the country from be insolvent soon this month, sources said Monday.

Vice Minister of Finance had previously Oikonomou Pantelis said the discussions were over, but for the most part, the sources that have direct knowledge of the case, they are far from it.

Finance ministers of the euro area (Eurogroup) met in Luxembourg on Monday and they had to do even more pressure on the Greek government to implement more forcefully the reforms planned by the international bailouts.

The second plan, set in July, includes in particular the private sector is participating in a plan to exchange debt at a discount.Athens wants at least 90% of the creditors participating in the project goes forward.

The skepticism seems in order in the markets about the ability of Europeans to stem the crisis in Greece, especially after the latest financial reports of the country.

The country's debt should represent 172.7% of GDP next year against an estimate of 161.8% for 2011, according to the draft budget of Athens. The unemployment rate has meanwhile increased to 15.2% this year and to 16.4% in 2012.

Michael Fuchs, vice president of the coalition CDU / CSU to power in Germany, the case is heard: Greece is indeed bankrupt. "There is probably no alternative for us to accept a deletion of at least 50% of its debt," said he.

Few departments will see their funding increase above inflation this year. Among the losers, the Ministries of Labour and of Education, which will eliminate 14,000 jobs in 2012. In pictures, the ranking of worst off and those who are doing better. Changes in envelopes are compared with an assumed increase in consumer prices of 1.7%.

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Farmers have stopped paying their mutual employer contributions to protest against the crisis in their industry and competition from Spain. Competition from imported products and the consequences of the epidemic of E. Coli have depressed prices for some vegetables.

Vegetable growers, who are unable to sell their products at remunerative prices, announced Friday that they now refuse to pay their expenses. "The vegetable growers all over France have decided to put insolvent employer contributions to the MSA [the Agricultural Social Mutual], deadlines and other bank charges", said the union "Vegetables in France" affiliated with the FNSEA, the National Federation of Farmers' Unions."We must preserve what little cash we have left to pay our employees and our local suppliers," says the organization, according to which farms are losing "20% to 40% of their turnover for several weeks ".

Producers want to denounce the "unfair competition" imported products "that do not meet the same health regulations, environmental and social" and that sell at a lower price on the French market. They demonstrated Thursday in the Bouches-du-Rhône to protest the arrival of products from Spain, which do not respect the calibration standards or hygiene. Farmers also attack cargo crossing the border without the recipient and without price, looking for a buyer, even if it cut prices and lead the market in the fall.

But this practice illegal, not only because of the Spaniards.The French also use this process. The Directorate General for Competition, Consumer Affairs and Fraud Control (DGCCRF) recently conducted several controls, including the balance sheet is not yet known.

Bruno Le Maire, responded by asking a "rapid assessment" Operations Fraud. The Minister of Agriculture recognizes that the "crisis is real" to producers who fail to cover their production costs. He will meet "soon" with its sister Spanish, Rosa Aguilar. Meanwhile, the minister called for "respect for European and national rules" in the fruit and vegetables.

A meeting scheduled on August 17 between producers, shippers and distributors is meant to validate a plan to boost consumption of fruits and vegetables before the end of the campaign.In recent months, producers have also suffered severe contamination with E. Coli, which led to a plunge in the price of cucumbers, tomatoes and salads.

A 48% is to themselves that people rely on most to avoid triggering a new crisis. Angela Merkel gets 46% and 33% Nicolas Sarkozy, according to a survey of Parisian. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy at a European summit in Brussels June 24, 2011.

The French, overwhelmingly concerned about the impact of the current financial situation, have more confidence in Chancellor Angela Merkel Nicolas Sarkozy than to resolve it, shows a survey released Thursday by Le Parisien.

The study conducted by Harris Interactive, 79% of respondents expressed concern for France and 67% for their personal situation.

And it themselves, the citizens, they rely the most (48%) to prevent the onset of a new financial and economic crisis.

Angela Merkel and the German government obtained the confidence of 46% of respondents, ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy and the French government (33%).

The International Monetary Fund (41%), companies (39%) and Europe (36%) and inspire more confidence to the French that their own leaders.

In contrast, distrust particularly affects traders (6%), banks (17%) and the rating agencies (17%).

Concerning the capacity of France to reduce its deficit and debt, respondents favored the 85% reduction in spending on higher taxes (12%).

The survey was conducted online from August 8 to 10 with 1,090 people aged 18 and over, by the quota method.

With Reuters.

Can not sell tobacco as licensed, the number is limited.

Tobacco sales in four departments overseas since Monday is officially supervised: the councils will have to divide their territory a limited number of outlets licensed and unpopular reforms still unclear which they are reluctant to enter. This change in the sale of tobacco in Martinique, Guadeloupe, Guyane and Reunion (not in Mayotte where taxation is not aligned, ie) arises from the supplementary budget for 2011 in the Official Journal published Saturday.

Article 44, the result of an amendment by Senator Reunion Anne-Marie Payet (Centre Union) who fought for years on behalf of the "public health", thus regulating "effect from 1 August 2011" sale tobacco in the DOM.Now can not sell tobacco as licensed, the number of "maximum" is detailed: for the 540 Martinique, 550 for Guadeloupe, Reunion and 1070 to 300 in Guyana. In other words, a drastic reduction that is already cringe. Historically, the sale of tobacco escaped any regulation since the creation of DOM in 1946 because "some areas have local production," told AFP Anne-Marie Payet.

Thus at the meeting, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry has identified 2,000 sales outlets. "Either for 1 320 inhabitants in 3500 against one in France", denounced Ms. Payette, who recalls "that tobacco kills 600 people a year on the island, ten times the traffic accidents."In the DOM, tobacco is purchased in any small local shops or shopping mall where he can serve as a loss leader: sometimes in baking at the meeting, in "Chinese" (grocers) in Guyana, in gas stations, bars, etc..

The councils are not ready

A transition period was intended to allow those who would not receive a license – which the price remains to be decided by the county councils – to liquidate their stock, "not later than December 31." The president of the rights of nonsmokers, Gerard Audureau, welcomed this "trend that is returning the DOM in the law." "The government will ensure its implementation, but we will do that too," he told AFP.

Through the voice of Baroin, who was budget minister in parliamentary debates, the government had opposed the measure, said it was "not realistic" date of August 1. A view shared by the General Council (GC). "We are absolutely not ready", it has been recognized in Martinique, where it criticizes the criteria for licensing "undefined". In Guadeloupe, the MC asks the State to enforce the regulation itself, denouncing "a new skill without additional resources" to investigate cases.

The CG of the Meeting, he, passed a motion "to oppose the measure and seek, where appropriate, whether the Regional Director of Customs who issues the licenses." In Guyana, where already 30% of sales are illegal, there is concern that the limited outlets encumber all tax revenues (DOM each collection itself tobacco-related taxes).The Ministry of Overseas stressed that the law was "not directly applicable" to a decree clarifying all these gray areas (the award criteria, duration of licenses, etc.). Is' in progress development "and must be published" before the end of the year. "

The CEO of Nexans confirmed Tuesday the objectives of the group in 2011 while the European survey in progress on an alleged cartel in the cable is always a financial risk for the company.

The giant electric cable fell from first to second in the world since the Italian Prysmian bought Dutch Draka, received earlier this month, as eleven other cable-laying, a "statement of objections" from the European Commission.

"I can not say anything else at this stage, if not repeat (…) This poses a significant risk of adverse financial condition of the company, "said the CEO of Nexans, Frédéric Vincent, in an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of a patronage operation at Versailles.

Nexans has meet in Brussels in the second half. "The Commission then takes the time it deems necessary (…) So that means if there is punishment, it will be in 2012," he added.

Frédéric Vincent nevertheless confirmed the Group's financial targets for the full year, up about 5% of revenues and an operating margin of around 5.5%. Nexans will publish its first half results on July 27.

The United States accused Beijing of using taxes, quotas and a minimum price regime to restrict exports of certain raw materials vital for European industry. A wealth of rare metals in Nancheng in Jiangxi Province, Oct. 9, 2010.

The European Union welcomed Tuesday the sentence imposed by the WTO to China because of its restrictions on exports of raw materials, seeing a "strong signal" sent to Beijing, while another dispute brewing over rare earths.

"This is a clear verdict in favor of open trade and fair access to raw materials," said EU Trade Commissioner, Karel De Gucht. "It sends a strong signal that we must avoid imposing unfair trade restrictions and this brings us closer to a situation of equity in the commodities sector," he said in a statement.

The WTO, hearing an appeal from 2009 to the EU, U.S. and Mexico, held a series of illegal restrictions imposed by China on exports of commodities nine crucial for European industry (bauxite, zinc, coke, magnesium in particular).

The cause of the taxes imposed on exports, import quotas and a system of minimum prices. Europeans and Americans believe that this contributes to increase prices of finished products which need these commodities.

They are used for medical equipment, CDs, electronics, automotive, refrigerators, non-ferrous metallurgy, car batteries, or cans of drink.

The Commissioner issued a warning to Beijing about the issue of neighboring rare earth: "In light of this result, China should ensure free and fair access to supplies of rare earth."

China provides about 95% of world production of rare earths, a group of 17 mineral elements necessary for the manufacture of many high-tech products, from iPods to wind through the batteries for electric vehicles. But it has only about 36% of known reserves of these substances.

Beijing decided in December to reduce by 35% in the first half of 2011 export quotas for rare earths, compared to the same period last year, triggering protests from Japan, the United States and the Germany in particular.