News & Financial Advice

Standard & Poor's expects a mild recession in the euro area in the first half of 2012 and Thursday lowered growth forecasts for several countries.

In a report entitled "European Economic Perspective: The Return of the recession," the rating agency forecasts growth of 0.4% for the euro area next year, following 1.5% expected this year.It has revised its forecast to 0.5% growth for France in 2012 (against 0.8% previously), 0.6% for Germany (against 1%) and 0.1% for Italy (against 0.2%).

In 2013, growth would accelerate to 1.2% for the euro area to 1.3% for France, 1.5% for Germany, 0.5% for Italy and 1.0% for Spain (after + 0.3% expected in 2012).

"We now expect a mild recession in the first half of 2012 in the euro area, before a modest rebound in the second half of the year," wrote the chief economist at S & P for Europe, Jean-Michel Six.

"The impending recession threatening Europe was first found fertile ground in Spain, Portugal and Greece, but economic problems are spreading now in the heart of the euro area, France and Spain," says it.

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The 17 countries in the euro area could introduce a tax on financial transactions, even if other states of the European Union are opposed, said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble.

The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble estimates that 17 countries in the euro area could introduce a tax on financial transactions, even if other states of the European Union are opposed, in an interview published Monday in the Financial Times. The euro area could be used to test the effectiveness of such a tax and thus convince the United Kingdom to join it, according to Mr.Schäuble hopes that an agreement on the issue at the G20 summit on Thursday and Friday in Cannes (south-eastern France).

The United States and Canada, but also China and Russia have opposed such a tax, new version of the "Tobin Tax" advocated for years by associations fighting against poverty, and that Paris and Berlin are now calling their wishes. The Europeans have agreed to implement this tax in Europe and the European Commission should make proposals to this effect soon. But within the EU several countries are opposed, as the United Kingdom who fears for his financial center of London and Sweden.

Greece is expected to remain mired in recession next year, complicating his efforts budget as the country is still waiting for the payment of the next tranche of aid that would allow it to avoid bankruptcy.

The Greek economy will contract by 2.5% next year, following a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) of 5.5% expected this year, according to the 2012 budget proposal sent to the country's parliament Monday.

These forecasts are darker than those used to calculate the final in Athens bailout 109 billion euros, which was banking on a return to a growth of 0.6% next year.

The Greek government admitted Sunday he would miss this year's deficit targets that were assigned by its international donors.Athens anticipates a deficit of 8.5% of GDP in 2011, while the EU and the IMF at the planned 7.6%.

The Socialist government of George Papandreou has already announced new austerity measures to try to reduce the budget deficit next year to 6.8% of GDP in 2012 to an original target of 6.5% .

BANKS COULD PAY MORE

The fiscal slippage of Athens could complicate the ongoing negotiations on the second Greek bailout, analysts said.

"In the political debate in Germany, this will probably be used to request the renegotiation of the entire bailout and greater involvement of private investors," said Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg Bank.

If the "troika" of donors in Greece – European Union, International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank – concluded in their report due this month that the financing needs of Greece will be greater than expected due of the recession, banks may be required to contribute more than the discount of 21% in July.

The "troika" continue for the time to peel the accounts of Greece and has not given the green light to the payment of a new tranche of eight billion euros vital to prevent the country from be insolvent soon this month, sources said Monday.

Vice Minister of Finance had previously Oikonomou Pantelis said the discussions were over, but for the most part, the sources that have direct knowledge of the case, they are far from it.

Finance ministers of the euro area (Eurogroup) met in Luxembourg on Monday and they had to do even more pressure on the Greek government to implement more forcefully the reforms planned by the international bailouts.

The second plan, set in July, includes in particular the private sector is participating in a plan to exchange debt at a discount.Athens wants at least 90% of the creditors participating in the project goes forward.

The skepticism seems in order in the markets about the ability of Europeans to stem the crisis in Greece, especially after the latest financial reports of the country.

The country's debt should represent 172.7% of GDP next year against an estimate of 161.8% for 2011, according to the draft budget of Athens. The unemployment rate has meanwhile increased to 15.2% this year and to 16.4% in 2012.

Michael Fuchs, vice president of the coalition CDU / CSU to power in Germany, the case is heard: Greece is indeed bankrupt. "There is probably no alternative for us to accept a deletion of at least 50% of its debt," said he.

Thales plans to sell part of its services activities and the name of GFI Informatique circulating as potential buyer, said on Tuesday a union source, confirming a report in Les Echos.

The electronics and defense could be separated from his division "Business Solutions" specializing in large scale integration projects from hospitals in Paris.

"There is a project on 'Business Solutions' management said they were approached for this activity," the source said union Thales.

The name of GFI Informatique has advanced the hypothesis of interest Logica, cited by Les Echos, being more of a "rumor," she said.

A spokesman for Thales declined to comment, as did a spokeswoman for Logica.GFI Informatique, person was not immediately available for comment on the report.

The action Thales wins 3.09% to 24.835 euros to 3:50 p.m., in a market up strongly, gaining 4.7% the SBF120.

The IT services division of Thales, who directed last year 81 million euros in sales and employs approximately 500 people, is part of Thales Services most exposed to competition and further from the heart business of Thales, said a close case cited by Les Echos.

The newspaper said two others, those of outsourcing and agencies in the regions, between them representing more than 300 million in revenue and 3,000 people, could also be offered for sale.

Of such sale will take place when discussions continue between Thales and Safran on a possible asset swap in the defense, which would require the payment of a cash payment by Thales.

Activities that may be made by Safran are indeed valued at 650 million euros in turnover, while those of Thales would represent, according to press reports, that 200 to 300 million turnover.

A year after a break, Safran and Thales had announced in May, have resumed talks on an exchange of assets in the defense, under pressure from the state, their common shareholder that seeks to reduce duplication in a rapidly budget reduction.

The Swiss bank plans to remove "thousands" of jobs in its investment bank. Restructuring decided before the discovery of a fraud of $ 2 billion a trader of its subsidiary in London. UBS, headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, May 26, 2011.

Swiss bank UBS, which said Thursday he was the victim of fraud by one of its brokers who lost $ 2 billion, will "massively" reduce its investment banking and to make major layoffs, said the Helvetic Press Friday.

A reduction in size of the bank, often cited by analysts, should be announced Nov. 17 at the UBS Investor Day, said the daily Tages-Anzeiger, which is based on internal sources of bank.This will result in the reduction of "thousands" of jobs in the division, said the newspaper, which is also expected that the Chief Oswald Grübel and the head of the banking Carsten Kengeter have to resign soon .

The Swiss press has reacted strongly in the wake of revelations of the first bank Helvetic, who announced Thursday he was the victim of fraudulent activities of one of its traders, which caused him to lose $ 2 billion (1.4 billion euros) . While the bank had to release third quarter earnings of between 900 million and 1.1 billion Swiss francs, analysts said it could now suffer a loss of 500 million, the first since the third quarter of 2009.

"You have to ask, how is it possible, despite recommendations stricter domestic (…), to lose such sums out of control," questioned the daily Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ). For the newspaper, the case threatens the reputation of the entire Swiss financial center, which represents more than 10% of gross domestic product Helvetic. A Swiss Exchange, the rebounded Friday morning as UBS. After closing Thursday down more than 10%, the action gained 2.67% to 10.01 Swiss francs in a market up 0.60%.

Farmers have stopped paying their mutual employer contributions to protest against the crisis in their industry and competition from Spain. Competition from imported products and the consequences of the epidemic of E. Coli have depressed prices for some vegetables.

Vegetable growers, who are unable to sell their products at remunerative prices, announced Friday that they now refuse to pay their expenses. "The vegetable growers all over France have decided to put insolvent employer contributions to the MSA [the Agricultural Social Mutual], deadlines and other bank charges", said the union "Vegetables in France" affiliated with the FNSEA, the National Federation of Farmers' Unions."We must preserve what little cash we have left to pay our employees and our local suppliers," says the organization, according to which farms are losing "20% to 40% of their turnover for several weeks ".

Producers want to denounce the "unfair competition" imported products "that do not meet the same health regulations, environmental and social" and that sell at a lower price on the French market. They demonstrated Thursday in the Bouches-du-Rhône to protest the arrival of products from Spain, which do not respect the calibration standards or hygiene. Farmers also attack cargo crossing the border without the recipient and without price, looking for a buyer, even if it cut prices and lead the market in the fall.

But this practice illegal, not only because of the Spaniards.The French also use this process. The Directorate General for Competition, Consumer Affairs and Fraud Control (DGCCRF) recently conducted several controls, including the balance sheet is not yet known.

Bruno Le Maire, responded by asking a "rapid assessment" Operations Fraud. The Minister of Agriculture recognizes that the "crisis is real" to producers who fail to cover their production costs. He will meet "soon" with its sister Spanish, Rosa Aguilar. Meanwhile, the minister called for "respect for European and national rules" in the fruit and vegetables.

A meeting scheduled on August 17 between producers, shippers and distributors is meant to validate a plan to boost consumption of fruits and vegetables before the end of the campaign.In recent months, producers have also suffered severe contamination with E. Coli, which led to a plunge in the price of cucumbers, tomatoes and salads.

A 48% is to themselves that people rely on most to avoid triggering a new crisis. Angela Merkel gets 46% and 33% Nicolas Sarkozy, according to a survey of Parisian. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy at a European summit in Brussels June 24, 2011.

The French, overwhelmingly concerned about the impact of the current financial situation, have more confidence in Chancellor Angela Merkel Nicolas Sarkozy than to resolve it, shows a survey released Thursday by Le Parisien.

The study conducted by Harris Interactive, 79% of respondents expressed concern for France and 67% for their personal situation.

And it themselves, the citizens, they rely the most (48%) to prevent the onset of a new financial and economic crisis.

Angela Merkel and the German government obtained the confidence of 46% of respondents, ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy and the French government (33%).

The International Monetary Fund (41%), companies (39%) and Europe (36%) and inspire more confidence to the French that their own leaders.

In contrast, distrust particularly affects traders (6%), banks (17%) and the rating agencies (17%).

Concerning the capacity of France to reduce its deficit and debt, respondents favored the 85% reduction in spending on higher taxes (12%).

The survey was conducted online from August 8 to 10 with 1,090 people aged 18 and over, by the quota method.

With Reuters.

Major European banks have managed to limit their losses on Greek debt to 5.4 billion euros, by negotiating a discount of 21% of their assets during the debate on second bailout plan.

This is the French BNP Paribas, which should suffer the greatest losses in the sector, with the evaporation of about 950 million euros of its debt. The French bank is the first European settlement in the most exposed to debt in Athens, Greece out.

The fact that the losses of the banking sector are not heavier relieved investors and calm the fears of contagion from the crisis with Spain and Italy.

"The danger of default (Greek) is spread uncontrollable.This does not mean that all is well, only a disaster was averted, "said Oliver Flade, fund manager at Allianz Global Investors.

"A discount of 40-50% would have made sense economically. But between the banks that want 0% and political leaders who demanded more, 21% consensus was reached.For banks, it's better than what they could expect. "

The cost for European insurers, who held the end of last year 24 billion euros of Greek debt, should be similar to that of banks.

However, exposure of the insurance sector is less clearly defined than the banks, which have revealed many details of their assets in the stress tests last week.

DISCOUNT TO ALLOW A SECOND?

But the fear of increased losses anticipated by the banks remain.Greek bonds are currently trading at a price implying a discount of 45% against 50% last week.

"We believe that long most likely outcome is that the Greek debt holders will have to undergo first a small discount, and a larger later.For that Greece has a chance to succeed, they will probably give up about 65%, "said Gary Jenkins, the analyst firm Evolution.

Four options are available to creditors, including exchange offers of securities and capital (rollover) and a scheme to buy back debt.

These changes in loan terms have led rating agency Fitch to prevent it would put Greece in partial default.

The program based on voluntary activity in order to avoid a complete failure, some institutions may not fully participate.

Greek debt held by the private sector reached about 150 billion euros.A 90% would affect 135 billion euros, of which about 54 billion by mid-2014.

The net contribution of the private sector equivalent to the $ 54 billion, less the cost, borne by Greece, the news service obligations to 30 years.

BNP Paribas has 4.5 billion euros of Greek debt. It is followed by the Franco-Belgian Dexia and Cyprus Marfin, both at 3.4 billion euros.

Both banks could therefore suffer a loss of 700 million euros each.

This is followed by Commerzbank with 3 billion euros of assets, and Societe Generale 2.4 billion.Losses expected to reach 630 million and 500 million euros.

Insurers are the most exposed Italian Generali, with 3 billion euros, French CNP Assurances with 2 billion and Germany's Allianz, with 1.3 billion euros, according to figures from Barclays Capital.

France Telecom and Canal + announced Friday it had finalized their partnership in the pay-TV which will see the telecom operator retain a majority stake in its bouquet of channels dedicated to movies.

The two groups were in discussions for several weeks after having given up their initial project, announced in January, which included the creation of a joint venture equally owned and whose governance would be ensured parity.

The new installation provides a successful acquisition of a minority group Canal + pay-TV in Orange Cinema Series up to 33.33%, France Telecom retaining a stake of 66.66%.

The project, devised a time, a merger of cinema chains Orange TPS Star is abandoned.

In a joint statement, the two groups indicate that governance "will be provided by both partners in proportion to their percentage of ownership."

The new partnership project, whose financial terms were not specified, must still be submitted to the representatives and the regulator.

At 13:00, the action of France Telecom and Vivendi, parent company of Canal +, were stable at 13.885 euros and 17.01 euros respectively.

RECONCILIATION

The announcement of the agreement seals the reconciliation between the two groups after a tense, marked by the offensive of the telecom operator in the field of content, the preserve of pay-TV group.

France Telecom has launched a redesign of its strategy in the content, preferring to concentrate now on partnerships for its television channels.

This thinking has led the telecom operator to negotiate with Canal + channels for its Cinema Series, and reflect on the future of Orange Sport.

Orange, which now pay up to 203 million euros per year for the game Saturday night and mobile rights to broadcast football matches in Ligue 1, has been largely absent from the last auction for television coverage.

The French group told Reuters last week that he was discussing a sale of Orange Sport to the Qatari Al Jazeera, which in June won the rights to broadcast games in Ligue 1 and will launch in the months come a new French-language channel devoted exclusively to sports.

Canal + put his side on a warming of relations with the telecom operator that is one of the leading distributors of its bouquet Canal Satellite.

The encrypted string is also mobilized by the planned launch in theory by the end of its first free channel on DTT.

Deputy Prime Minister of Greece has warned this weekend that recalcitrant MPs could block some reforms sought by the donor, even if Parliament should support the overall austerity plan in the vote Wednesday.

"I think all the measures in the short to medium term we believe that taken as part of reforms to be launched will be approved without difficulty," said Theodor Pangalos in an interview published Sunday in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo.

Greek MPs must begin debate Monday on the five-year plan of tax increases and cuts in public spending.They will vote Wednesday on the austerity plan developed with the IMF and the European Union, and the next day on the law enforcement program.

Finance ministers of the EU have given until July 3 to the Greek Parliament to adopt the austerity measures demanded by the EU and the IMF to release the next tranche of 12 billion euros and prepare the second aid plan.

Pangalos, however, believes that Parliament should be difficult to approve new tax reforms. Similarly, the privatization of national companies should be difficult to adopt, he warned.

"There, we could have problems. I do not know if some of our members (PASOK) will vote against.It is possible, "he acknowledged.

ND THE PLAN DOES NOT

In parliament, the majority of government is reduced Papandreou: PASOK to power of 155 deputies out of 300.

Two Socialist deputies announced that they would vote against such measures. A third said Sunday if he would vote against the Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos did not give him certain assurances.

"I sent a letter to Venizelos 16 points (…).I expect precise answers, which will decide my vote, "said MP Panagiotis Sunday Kouroublis radio NET.

After the parliamentary elections of October 2009, the Socialists had 160 members but the austerity measures, challenged every day in the street, caused five defections.

The Conservative opposition has rejected Sunday calls for united front initiated by the government and the leaders of the European Union.

The leader of New Democracy (ND), Antonis Samaras, said the plan would only delve a little over Greece during the crisis.

"You can not be asked to pay more taxes in a country where the tax rate is already very high, where the market is sluggish, with an economic activity to zero and a deep recession," said Samaras in a statement .

The austerity measures have plunged Greece into recession, the toughest for 37 years, with a gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 4% last year. Unemployment reached a record 16.2% in March to the general population, and 43% among youth.

The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble called the Greek Parliament to approve the plan.If rejected, the next tranche of 12 billion euros will not be paid to Athens, Greece, which could lead to default.

"If the plan is rejected, that really no one expects, the conditions for the next tranche of aid will be obsolete for the IMF, the EU and the euro area," said Schäuble journal Sunday German Bild am Sonntag.

"The stability of the entire euro area would be in danger (in case of rejection of the plan) and we should ensure faster than the risk of contagion of the financial system and all countries in the euro area would be controlled," Has he said.

Sunday evening, demonstrators were expected in Syntagma Square in Athens, high place of the Greek dispute over four weeks.