The stock markets worldwide have tumbled this week. The cause of persistent fears weighing on the strength of U.S. growth and a risk of contagion from the crisis of debt in the eurozone.
The Paris Stock Exchange dropped 1.26% Friday, August 5, ending at a new low since July 2009 and signed its tenth straight session of declines, the most since the creation of the CAC 40 index in 1987. Good employment figures led to a slight American will rebound ephemeral. In fact, no stock has been untouched by the downward trend this week, culminating Thursday with a meltdown in the markets: Wall Street dropped from 4% to 5%, like the European stock markets mostly down over 3%, while the index of market volatility is highest in a year."You can say, it is indeed a crash summer even if the word is often whispered half-heartedly," writes in his daily note Philippe Cohen, manager at Barclays Stock Exchange.
Concerns about the recovery in the U.S.
The markets are worried about the health of the global economy. As well as one side of the Atlantic than the other, the news is bad. United States First, the political crisis surrounding the raising of the ceiling of debt is certainly over, but doubts about the strength of the economy are stronger every day, with the accumulation of worrying signs. Manufacturing activity is down, consumer spending and hold the GDP grew by only 1.3% in the first half. If Friday's unemployment figures are better than expected, it remains very high level of 9.1%.
Fear of contagion from the debt crisis in Europe
In the euro area, the second Greek rescue plan developed in July is not enough to reassure markets and fears of contagion from the debt crisis continues to worsen. Italy and Spain are again under pressure from the markets. Now Jean-Claude Trichet failed to allay fears on Thursday. It certainly has announced a special operation to refinance in six months, and especially his decision to make new purchases on the debt market, while the ECB had not done since May. Except it turned out that these purchases related only Irish and Portuguese bonds and that the problems are now in Spain and Italy, who, between them, weigh 30% of GDP in the eurozone.
Markets revved
The markets tumbled was also due to a runaway effect and conformism that leads investors to sell their shares en masse. "The movements are always rough due to runaway. It is anticipated that others will anticipate and so on", says Gunther Capelle-Blancard, Professor of Economics at Paris 1. This effect, potentially explosive, was at work during the financial crisis in 2008, after the fall of Lehman Brothers, then in May 2010 at the outbreak of the debt crisis in the eurozone. "We're starting to get used to three years of steady decline 3 to 4% daily, which was extremely rare in the past," says Mr. Capelle-Blancard.
The psychological dimension is even stronger than the market goes into the summer, traditionally more volatile.The magnitude of the changes is also fueled by technical reasons, certain thresholds achieved by the index, triggering sales orders from institutional investors. In addition, the mathematical algorithms used by some operators, which is difficult to know the real impact on the movements are abrupt and may increase volatility. Overall, the market reaction is "exacerbated but not irrational" as the economic fundamentals are deteriorating, warns Mr. Capelle-Blancard.
Limited options
The bad news is that there is not much to be done to stabilize the situation. As noted by Henry Blodget on Business Insider, the crash of 2000, the Fed rate was 6.5% and were immediately lowered. During the 2007 crisis, it was 5.25. Today, however, it is 0.25. The U.S. central bank can no longer play on the lever.While fiscal stimulus is also impossible. In Europe and the United States, the time is at best, no question of setting up new stimulus measures. Again, the situation is more restrictive than in previous crashes. In 2000, the U.S. budget was in surplus during the 2007 crisis, the deficit was only 200 billion. Today, it reached 1.4 trillion.
Again, it is for the central banks to play firefighters. The Fed will probably have to launch a third wave of quantitative easing (EQ3), ie purchase of treasury bills. It could announce the end of August. As for the ECB, market rumors suggest possible debt buybacks Italian and Spanish.One member of the Governing Council, the Belgian Luc Coene, has not ruled in any case to do so, provided that these countries make the necessary efforts in advance. In the longer term, however, the ECB seems to maintain its forecasts on inflation risks and did not rule out further up interest rates.