News & Financial Advice

The number of unemployed in Germany fell in August to its lowest level since November 2008, thus establishing the conditions for continued growth in household spending needed to recover more balanced economy.

The Federal Labour Office said on Tuesday a drop of 17,000 job seekers in seasonally adjusted data (SDA) between July and August, whose number was reduced to 3.193 million.

This decline is however slightly less than that envisaged by economists to Reuters, who had anticipated a decline of 20,000.

In July, the decrease in the number of unemployed was 21,000 according to revised figures, against 20.000 originally announced.

The unemployment rate remained steady in August, and in line with expectations at 7.6% of the workforce.

On the employment front, Germany seems to fare better than its European partners, since the rate of unemployment in the euro area remained unchanged in July at 10%.

The German government has also been criticized by other countries, including France, who believe that Berlin does not enough to stimulate domestic demand, which would be favorable for exports of country partners.

"SUCCESS STORY"

"The impressive performance of the labor market can become a real success story if it eventually leads to a recovery in private consumption," said Carsten Brzeski, of ING Financial Markets.

"This is not only the decline in unemployment bodes well for private consumption but also job creation. Since the beginning of the year, the trend in employment is still growing," says he.

Berlin, however, reflected in an austerity plan intended to save 80 billion euros over the next four years.

"The U.S. economy is very bad right now," he told a press conference Heinrich Alt, the Federal Labour Office.

"There are a lot of risks.Until now the trend is stable but we can not ignore that the situation is more fragile than other periods of recovery. "

Economists estimate that slower growth should however not too cripple the labor market, while in the second quarter of the German economy grew at its fastest pace since the country's reunification in 1990.

"The economy will not be able to maintain these high growth rates. The pace will slow in the fall and next year.But the slowdown will not be strong enough to have a significant impact on the labor market, "says Eckart Tuchtfeld, Commerzbank.

In unadjusted data, the number of unemployed fell from 4,000 in August to 3.188 million against 3.192 million in July for an unemployment rate unchanged at 7.6%.

The Federal Office of Statistics for its part announced that the number of people working in Germany had increased from 40,296,000 in June to 40.305 million in July.

* Chart the evolution of unemployment in Germany:

r.reuters.com/nec48n

The month is September is historically the less buoyant year for Wall Street.And this year, economic indicators expected during the first days of the month will put the nerves of investors challenged at risk to initiate a new downtrend.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost nearly 13% since April, gradually accumulating as disappointing economic indicators which have fueled fears of "double dip" relapse into recession after the 2008 crisis -2009.

But the benchmark index of the place New York has so far found strong support around the threshold of 1,040 points, while penetration of the support triggering a wave of purchases.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured the markets at least temporarily, saying Friday that the Fed was ready to act if the economic situation deteriorates. But indicators coming days may revive concern.

"The indicators tend to be consistently to be below expectations," said Nick Kalivas, equity analyst for MF Global."I think that these indicators will trigger new sales next week."

Monthly statistics of the labor market expected Friday should show that 99,000 jobs have been destroyed in August, partly due to the end of temporary contracts linked to the decennial census, while job creation in the private sector should not exceed 42,000.

Until then, the ISM index of purchasing managers in industry and services will probably reflected a further slowdown in business growth.

The S & P 500 tested the threshold of 1040 points on two occasions during the past week but each time he finished the day up.This media has systematically encouraged buyers to return to the market over the past 10 months the index has not marked down so only once and briefly, in July.

DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM

The S & P 500, primary references many managers and analysts, finished Friday at 1064.59 points. If he drove the support of 1,040, it could fall in the range of 1010-1020 points.On the upside, he ran into resistance from its 14-day average at 1076.65, which limits its potential for recovery.

In the options market, this situation encourages the purchase of "put" on the S & P 500, which entitles the holders to sell futures on the index at a price fixed in advance.

"The overall feeling of investors in the options market has become very skeptical, purchases could go beyond the call buyers," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical analyst for Schaeffer's Investment.

The ratio "was able to call" used to measure changes in the general sentiment of the market, stood at 0.61 on Thursday, against 0.59 in average over the last 21 meetings.

Beyond the technical factors, investors will also monitor the statements of managers of major companies such as General Electric and Boeing at the conference "Global Industrials Unplugged" organized by Morgan Stanley.

On Friday, the semiconductor giant Intel cut its revenue forecast for the current quarter. Investors have largely ignored this warning, the Intel action ending the day up, but new estimates of this type could undermine the morale of the market.

Faced with such a combination of risk factors, many investors may take their time before returning to the market.Especially since September is historically the worst month for the three major indexes on Wall Street.

The wait will be promoted in the coming days by the prospect of a weekend of three days with the celebration of Labor Day Monday, September 6.

For Scott Marcouiller, head of technical strategy at Wells Fargo Advisors, a "rally" seems unlikely in the current context.

Wheat prices on the Chicago market gained nearly 8% in plenary on Thursday, near their highest level in two years, following the announcement by Russia to stop its exports of cereals.

The current drought in Russia, one of the worst in the history of the country, devastated crops in several regions, which causes several days a soaring wheat prices on international markets.

Investors are afraid that pressure on this market over the coming months in the absence of a major world exporters.

FAO, United Nations Organization for Food and Agriculture, on Wednesday reduced about 4%, or 25 million tonnes, its forecast for world wheat crop for 2010.

If it considers that the offer is sufficient for now, she warned that "if the drought in the Russian Federation continues, this could pose problems for winter crops in this country, with potentially serious implications for deliveries World wheat in 2011 and 2012.

The benchmark price of wheat in Chicago jumped 82% since June 9

On Thursday, panic buying of investment funds and traders on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) also focused on corn and soybeans, which gained 2.6% and 0.8%.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Thursday the suspension of exports of cereals and processed agricultural products between August 15 and December 31, a decision that applies to contracts already signed.

He has confirmed information previously reported by Russian news agency Interfax, which had triggered the wave of purchases.

"The announcement of Putin panicked everyone (…).Nobody knows how far we could go, "said Paul Haugen, Vice-president of Newedge USA.

At midday in the U.S., the futures contract on wheat for September delivery gained 60 cents, its highest increase allowed to 785.75 cents, the highest level these last 23 months by the maturity nearest market.

DISTORTIONS

"I would not be surprised if it took 60 or 70 cents extra, even more during the next session," said Joe Bedore, the brokerage firm FC Stone in Chicago.

Kazakhstan, another major wheat producer in the Black Sea basin, said anticipating a fall of 35% of its harvest and study by the end of a request from Moscow to reduce its own exports.

International trading giant Cargill said he expected that such trade barriers distort the global wheat market.

In the European market Euronext, the benchmark November contract on wheat milling peaked Thursday at 236 euros before ending the session at 223.25, up 6.8% on the day.It was up nearly 60% since late June

Wheat has not yet regained its record levels of 2008, when prices in Chicago had exceeded 13.30 dollars a bushel, boosted by fears of a global food crisis.

Some analysts also believe that the current increase is overstated, noting the high level of global supply after two consecutive years of record crops.

The absence of Russian wheat in the coming months could also benefit other major exporters, U.S. or Europe.

"A Case of Russian exports would distribute maps of the international wheat market," said one European trader."This would open up enormous opportunities for new sales in Western Europe and the United States."

But the rise in food prices may be exaggerated, says a French professional, for whom the market is driven by purely financial factors.

"When the market (Chicago) won a dollar in four days, not for fundamental reasons," said he. "The decline, if it occurs, will be equally severe."

Arkema plans to double its EBITDA this year after a second quarter marked by record sales amid robust demand in Asia and recovery in North America.

The chemist has done on the previous quarter sales of 1.6 billion euros, up 38%.At constant perimeter, sales rose 27%.

It's his best performance since its IPO in May 2006.

"The level of first half performance allows us to review our annual target of strong EBITDA to rise, which should exceed 600 million euros (…) approximately double the EBITDA reached in 2009," said the CEO of Arkema, Thierry Le Henaff, in a statement.

In the second quarter, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came out to 241 million euros, more than tripling the profit for the period of 2009 and similar growth of 76% over the first three months year.

Arkema has posted a net profit group share of 119 million euros in the quarter, while it had a loss of 114 million a year earlier.

The Arkema share closed Monday at 34.985 euros, giving a market capitalization of around two billion euros. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has taken more than 30% after more than doubled in value over the whole of 2009.

Nippon Steel, the fourth largest producer of steel, has experienced an improvement in its results for the fifth consecutive quarter, but reported lower than expected given the market slowdown in growth in China.

The Japanese group has announced a recurring earnings, before taxes and exceptional items, of 61.9 billion yen (541 million euros) for the period April to June, against a loss of 56.7 billion yen a year earlier .

Its sales jumped 30% to 970.6 billion yen.

The steelmaker Nippon nevertheless intends to realize an annual profit of 250 billion yen, while the Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S expects 316 billion yen.

Nippon Steel and ArcelorMittal joins said he expects a sharp drop in its third quarter results, in the grip of a slowdown in economic growth in China, a seasonal decline in activity and an increase prices of raw materials.

The sharp drop in prices in China have led steelmakers to cut production and the market could find itself in a situation of excess supply even while Beijing hardened its policy and reduced exports.

The Japanese group also announced Wednesday it would form a technical alliance with Australian BlueScope Steel for reinforced steel products for construction markets to boost sales abroad.

After the results, the title of Nippon Steel closed up 3.73%, to 306 yen.

Ericsson, the world leader in mobile network equipment, reported second-quarter results below analysts' expectations, the Swedish group, suggesting a difficult market including the continued reluctance of operators to invest.

The telecom equipment market begins to show signs of life but the level of customer spending is still very far from what it was before the crisis.

Ericsson, which has made tens of billions of crowns in savings to cope with falling demand, said that reducing costs would continue to be his priority as business conditions remain difficult.

In the second quarter, operating profit excluding joint ventures and excluding restructuring charges, stood at 5.3 billion kronor (564 million euros) against 6.1 billion a year ago and an average forecast of analysts of 5 8000000000.

Revenues fell 8% to 48 billion crowns, while analysts had forecast on 50500000000.

On Thursday, Nokia Siemens Network (NSN), one of his main rivals, posted a decline of 5% of its turnover in the period.

Like NSN, Ericsson said its sales had been affected by supply shortages of certain components.

"We believe (the break) weighed negatively to height of three to four billion kronor on sales for the quarter," the company said in a statement.

Ericsson's gross margin, 39%, came out at a level well above expectations, the group has benefited from the effect of cost reductions and a "mix" positive activities.

Wall Street opened up after the publication of a series of better than forecast, reassuring investors who feared a slowdown in U.S. economic recovery.

A few minutes after the start of trading, the DJIA gained 0.22% to 10,252.59 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index 0.44% to 1087.88 points and the Nasdaq Composite 0.35% to 2230.22 points.

The title Apple earned $ 262 4% after reporting a result well above expectations, boosted by higher sales of its Mac computers.

Prices are also supported by banking stocks Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have both published results better than expected, reassuring investors concerned about the health of the U.S. banking sector.

Both titles and took respectively 7.06% and 4.36% in early trade.

The players in the credit market begin the second half hoping to disappear or at least diminish the negative impact of the crisis of sovereign debt in the eurozone, which has largely contributed to the resurgence of risk aversion in the second quarter.

This crisis, which does not seem to have exhausted all its reserves, has hurt all risky assets, starting with the shares losing 7% to 19% since the beginning of the year in Europe.

Corporate bonds (corporate credit) have also suffered, premiums (spreads) having substantially eliminated.But they broadly maintain performance of 3.6% since the beginning of the year, while government bonds from all countries, took 2.4%.

"The second quarter of 2010 defeated the job right the first quarter due to the escalation of the crisis of sovereign debt.Risk aversion has increased rapidly, all assets have suffered (…) Credit spreads have strayed far beyond their level of early 2010, "credit strategists explain the General Society in their quarterly report.

Also taking stock of the quarter, analysts of Raiffeisen Capital Management noted that the credit offers "indisputably positive returns" to the beginning of the year.

But they add that with the sharp decline in bond rates – including German rates that serve as reference in the euro area – linked to the flight to quality stocks, "the potential of absolute return is now very limited."

"The high yield bonds (high yield bonds), the positive fundamentals, seem more attractive," they say.

Groupama Asset Management, as Societe Generale predicts a slowdown of the economy, promote investment grade credit and approach "stock picking" for high yield.

TIGHTENING OF SPREADS

Amund Asset Management, a leading European asset management, which is more optimistic about global growth, also favors the credit.

The sovereign crisis has largely closed the secondary credit market. The primary market, which had started on a flying in January led by financials, has been almost nonexistent from mid-April but has shown signs of lethargy output.

"The market recovered slowly and now spreads are improving.We believe that sovereign issues have less impact on the market and the spreads will be tighter at the end of the year compared to levels earlier this year, "say the strategists of Societe Generale.

After a very active quarter on the primary market, they are reviewing their forecasts down significantly from private bond issues to take into account also the small traditional activity in the third quarter.

They now expect 110 billion on non-financial corporate issues in 2010, or 55% less than in 2009 which was a record year where businesses, faced with tighter bank credit due to financial crisis, have use the market to restore their balance sheets.

They no longer need as use the market given the low investment costs, a lack of mergers and acquisitions and the continued improvement of treasury already abundant.

Societe Generale brings its projected emissions of senior debt of financial companies from 200 to 150 billion euros for 2010, against 152 billion in 2009. For emissions of subordinated debt, the forecast is reduced from 33 to 20 billion euros, against 17 billion in 2009.

The Nobel Prize in Economics Paul Krugman attacked in an interview published Monday in Germany's unofficial candidate to head the European Central Bank, saying that naming Axel Weber present a "substantial risk (…)" for the euro. Asked by the newspaper Handelsblatt in an appointment of the current president of the Bundesbank to take over from Jean-Claude Trichet, Mr. Krugman replied: "The risk for the euro area would be considerable."

Economist criticizes Dr. Weber, one of the favorites to head the ECB, interested only in the fight against inflation even if it means endangering growth. "The risk of contagion (problems) from Greece to Spain and Portugal to Italy would be much greater with a president so conservative for the ECB," he saidKrugman, recognizing not personally know the owner of the Bundesbank.

Weber is concerned about inflation even when there is not, "he joked, adding:" If you are looking for someone who wants a 0% inflation even when the unemployment rate is 13 %, Weber is your man. " "The ECB must become much more flexible and aggressive. His conservative politics is primarily due to the sensitivity of Germany", he also analyzed.

Unlike the American Fed, the ECB has a clear mandate to preserve price stability, and not to support growth. Mr. Krugman also criticizes implicitly the direction of German economic policy, now focused on fiscal restraint. "This is not the time to be worried about the deficit", said the Nobel Prize, in line with recent remarks by U.S. President Barack Obama.