Archive for the ‘calculation’ Category

Greece between external pressures and general strike

February 6, 2012 - 3:55 pm Comments Off

The Greek government's negotiations with the major political parties to agree on new austerity measures are dragging. The euro zone is getting impatient. And the unions called a general strike Tuesday. A retired manifest in Athens against the austerity measures December 15, 2011

The difficult negotiations between the Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos government and political parties are expected to continue Tuesday, while Greece will be a general strike, to wrest the downstream parties to reforms demanded by the EU and the IMF.

As the day until late at night, Mr. Papademos was to meet Monday evening the Troika representing the country's creditors, EU, IMF and ECB, whose patience is sorely tested by the length of the bargaining.

The hope is to conclude a political agreement Monday between the leaders of the three government parties, George Papandreou (Socialist), Antonis Samaras (Conservative), and George Karatzaferis (far right), on measures to implement was away with the "very likely" to report Tuesday to the meeting originally scheduled for Monday, according to a government source. "Negotiations continue

. There are still issues to resolve," said a government source told AFP in order to justify this new deadline. The challenge is to put an end to three weeks of negotiating a double, both with foreign creditors and the three political leaders, on the modalities for the further course of rigor required by countries in return for a second plan bailout of 130 billion euros.

To release these funds, and also endorse the erase operation 100 billion debt by private creditors, institutional lenders require an explicit commitment to MM. Papandreou, Samaras and Karatzaferis, in turn reluctant to countersign and unpopular measures that could deepen the recession. But the length of the bargaining has the patience to creditors.

Discussions are "already beyond the time," warned Monday Amadeu Altafaj, spokesman for the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn, noting that Brussels had relied on an outcome this weekend. Meeting in Paris, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have also increased their pressure.

"The Greeks have made commitments, they must scrupulously respect, there is no choice, time is short, it's a matter of days, now we must conclude" Sarkozy said. Sarkozy and Merkel also wanted the money paid by creditors to Greece (as a slice) is blocked in an account "to be sure that this money will be permanently available" to ensure service payments of debt.

Athens has a vital need for new aid to avoid default on 20 March, at maturity of debt of 14.5 billion euros. After five hours of Sunday in discussions with the three leaders, Mr. Papademos expressed an agreement on the extent of cost savings (about 3.3 billion euros) on the implementation of reforms aimed at lowering production costs and on a scheme to recapitalize banks.

According to media reports, the recent negotiations should focus on cutting the amount provided in supplementary pensions, the reduction demanded by the EU and the IMF in the minimum wage and on a proposed 15,000 layoffs in the public fast. The two leaders were right when they left the meeting raised their voices against the rigors advocated, but Mr. Karatzaferis then shared developments "satisfactory". The Socialist Party, which ruled the country until the November ouster of Mr. Papandreou, former Prime Minister-elect is ready "to show the same sense of responsibility" than before, for his part said his door voice, Panis Beglitis. But it does give the green light "that if an agreement on all of everything," he warned.

The Ministry of Finance has in turn ruled out the hypothesis of a deletion of two of the 14 months' salary in the private sector, despised by Mr. Samaras. Most newspapers were betting on a deal Monday morning's final trio Greek politics, which would allow Mr. Papademos lead to a close parallel final agreement on debt restructuring with private creditors.

The two largest unions, GSEE and ADEDY for the private to the public, also anticipated an agreement calling for a general strike Tuesday 24H, which is particularly disturbing schools, links with the islands, public transport and administration. A demonstration is planned in the center of Athens in mid-day.  

The new measures "are the chronicle of a death foretold (…), the goal is to bring down the entire law of labor and reduce wages by 20 to 30% in addition to cuts already made," he said President of GSEE, Iannis Panagopoulos. With ADEDY, GSEE had already organized six general strikes in 2011, but failed to bend donors. The leftist opposition, communist and radical, for its part is mounted to the front by announcing events on Monday night.

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December 1, 2011 - 1:05 pm Comments Off

Standard & Poor's expects a mild recession in the euro area in the first half of 2012 and Thursday lowered growth forecasts for several countries.

In a report entitled "European Economic Perspective: The Return of the recession," the rating agency forecasts growth of 0.4% for the euro area next year, following 1.5% expected this year.It has revised its forecast to 0.5% growth for France in 2012 (against 0.8% previously), 0.6% for Germany (against 1%) and 0.1% for Italy (against 0.2%).

In 2013, growth would accelerate to 1.2% for the euro area to 1.3% for France, 1.5% for Germany, 0.5% for Italy and 1.0% for Spain (after + 0.3% expected in 2012).

"We now expect a mild recession in the first half of 2012 in the euro area, before a modest rebound in the second half of the year," wrote the chief economist at S & P for Europe, Jean-Michel Six.

"The impending recession threatening Europe was first found fertile ground in Spain, Portugal and Greece, but economic problems are spreading now in the heart of the euro area, France and Spain," says it.

The MFA penalizes two management companies in Madoff case

November 24, 2011 - 4:25 am Comments Off

The Financial Markets Authority (AMF) French said Wednesday it has sanctioned two investment management companies, ADRs and Alternative Leaders France France, for failures of control and monitoring related to massive fraud orchestrated by Bernard Madoff until 2008 .

The fines amounted to 300,000 euros and 150,000 euros EIM France for Alternative Leaders France (ALF), the AMF said in a statement.

The exhibition of these two companies to the Madoff fraud was at the time of the revelation of it, from 63.5 million to three million ADRs and for ALF, said the AMF.

November 17, 2011 - 5:15 am Comments Off

The London Stock Exchange could launch a trading platform for SMEs in France provided that the incumbent operator, Euronext, or the authorities do not object, said its managing director Xavier Rolet in an interview published Thursday by The Tribune.

The London Stock Exchange began informal discussions in this direction, said Xavier Rolet, adding he had no deadline for now.

"We were contacted by French companies, which were probably disappointed by the abandonment of the SME market by the incumbent operator, Euronext," said the leader.

Societe Generale talk job cuts with unions

November 15, 2011 - 4:25 pm Comments Off

Societe Generale plans to eliminate hundreds of positions in its Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) to adapt its activities to the crisis in the euro area, have indicated Tuesday the unions of the bank at the end of a meeting with the CEO Frédéric Oudéa.

As BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole, SocGen launched in September a plan for savings and reducing the size of its balance sheet to enhance its financial strength and reduce its financing needs in dollars, after seeing its market capitalization s' collapse during the summer.

The rise in housing prices could stop in Paris

October 25, 2011 - 4:15 pm Comments Off

The rise in house prices in the capital could be interrupted, the professionals are predicting. The price per square meter reached 8,350 euros on average in the capital. http://www.flickr.com/photos/gcattiaux/

Rising prices of old apartments in Paris will soon be interrupted after a new record in 8350 euros per square meter on average this summer, due to a decrease in transactions caused by the new tax on most real estate gains. "The decline in the number of transactions due to the number of goods withdrawn from sale by investors, who fear they do not give in quickly to be affected by this tax, and the fact that sellers do not want lower their prices, "said Bernard Cadeau, president of the branch network Orpi.

From June to August, 44,300 existing homes were sold in Ile-de-France, down 2% over the same period in 2010 and 7% compared to the boom in housing markets (1999-2007) indicates the monthly note on real estate markets released Tuesday by the notaries in Paris and Ile. The decline in sales, which has increased this fall as real estate agents, is much brighter in Paris where it reaches 5% for 8500 apartments sold between June and August.

"Almost all transactions for the studios and 2 rooms and the property over € 1 million," laments Ricour Gilles de Bourges, president of the National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim) to Paris and Ile-de-France.For Philippe Buyens, Network Director Guy Hiccups, "is a rather classical vendors more easily take into account higher prices than lower prices ahead." Indeed, almost immediate consequence of the decrease of transactions: the latest projections of prices calculated on the promises of sales, "confirms that rising prices will soon be interrupted" in the capital, say the lawyers.

Record at 8350 euros per square meter

In intro-muros Paris, prices rose only 0.8% for the period June-August compared to the period from May to July, instead of a monthly increase of 1.5% over the same period in 2010. The deceleration is also clear from the peak reached in March 2011 when prices had risen by 2.5% in a month.

But this does not prevent prices from reaching Paris this summer a new high of 8,350 euros per square meter on average, 835,000 euros to 100 m2. The price hike is still very strong in the capital with an annual increase that reaches even 21.3% at end-August. But began to fade in comparison to previous months (23% annual growth in June). "Vendors want to sell their goods too expensive and look at china dogs with buyers until at least mid-November is the deadline to sign the final act before February 1 in order to escape taxation for investors and holders of a second home, "said Laurent Vimont, president of Century 21 network.

The record reached in central Paris displace more three categories: first-time buyers, the middle classes and tenants."We noted in our offices down 17 points in the percentage of buyers for the first-time buyers and middle classes," notes Mr. Vimont. For Mr. Ricour Bourgies of "investors rush to sell studios and 2 rooms yield to the households become homeowners, which reduces the number of units for tenants, another perverse system taxation of capital gains "

Negative net inflows for life insurance in September

October 24, 2011 - 6:00 am Comments Off

Net inflows of life insurance products was negative in September, the first time since December 2008, said Monday the French Federation of Insurance Companies.

The collection amounted to 9.7 billion euros in September while the amount of benefits paid totaled 11.5 billion euros.

Net inflows, the difference between contributions and benefits remains positive throughout the year.

In the first nine months of 2011, benefits payments to customers were up 19% to 78.8 billion euros, while the premiums collected by insurance companies has decreased from 11% to 98 billion euros .

The life insurance industry is suffering from financial market volatility, higher the performance of the booklet A and competition from other savings accounts that banks promote to increase the deposits of their customers.

Why is the rescue of the euro on the ECB stuck

October 22, 2011 - 2:15 am Comments Off

The EU summit Sunday will not lead to a global solution. But behind the technical question of strengthening the EFSF lies a conflict between France and Germany on the new role of the ECB. Explanations. Euro

Europe is in a fog for two days a summit critical to its future. A senior European official said the Thursday night, there will be no complete agreement at the EU summit in Brussels on Sunday. The elements of discord between states include the level of discount on Greek debt to private creditors to impose on the recapitalization of banks and especially the role of the ECB in the context of strengthening the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF ). For in cettetempête that shakes the eurozone, the ECB can not imagine a savior.His "future ex-" chief economist Jürgen Stark has also referred to this Thursday, the ECB "can not solve the crisis" and does not want to get out of the mandate it has been set. However, it could have a role to play. Explanations.

She refuses to be involved in strengthening the EFSF

One of the bones of contention between France and Germany is the role of the ECB in the rescue of the euro. Paris wants the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) obtain a banking license to go with her to refinance. Leverage and the ability to fund intervention limited to 440 billion euros that can lift the markets. Option rejected by the institution headed by Jean-Claude Trichet and Germany do not want the ECB to lend to the Fund in exchange for government bonds as collateral in trouble. Because it would weaken its balance sheet and would require a recapitalization.But Berlin refused to give his hand to the pocket.

Germany therefore recommends allowing the EFSF to act as guarantor to facilitate the obtaining of loans by fragile states. The fund could then provide up to 20% to 30% of their credits would be granted. In other words, the fund would be used to support a loan volume of 3 to 5 times higher in the private sector. This scenario would not involve the ECB.

But according to Cyril Regnier, strategist at Natixis, the track of the transformation of the EFSF bank is not completely abandoned. "I wait for the official release of Trichet's refusal to confirm," he said beforehand. "The ECB reversed its decision several times. She was sure she would not buy debt of struggling countries.Since it did massively. "

She claims to have done his share of work

In fact, the Frankfurt institution has already made several decisions that were outside its remit. Since May 2010, it bought bonds of troubled countries for a total of 165 billion euros, 45 billion for Greece. In exchange, it has hundreds of billions of euros of liquidity available to banks that have struggled to find on the market conditions as favorable. In his last speech as president of the institution, Jean-Claude Trichet has even granted two new lines of credit volume limit of one year, an unusually long. They also pledged 40 billion euros through the repurchase of a portion of their assets, especially real estate.The aim is to allow banks sufficient liquidity to meet their financial deadlines near term. The ECB is already far out of its responsibilities in the crisis. "For now, this is the only institution in Europe to have done something concrete," said Jean-Louis Mourier same.

She wants to return to its basic objectives

For over the events we tend to forget them. "The Bank has a mission, is to ensure price stability. This is too often overshadowed at this point in public perception," said Juergen Stark. This is because he refused these missions outside the mandate of the ECB's chief economist has decided to resign. He also pressed the point home by stating that if the ECB went further, "we not only ruin our reputation, but the ECB would also be overwhelmed by the task, and its independence threatened."Today, the objective of the ECB is that the EFSF is promptly voted and she stops to buy the debt of fragile states. But without really knowing if it will happen quickly. "It takes a lot of precautions. It gave no date for example on the end of the buyback," said Cyril Regnier.

The ECB should it have a stronger role in the future?

Opinion is divided on its role in the institutions. "The ECB is currently the only entity capable of ending the crisis," said Cyril Regnier reminder that the ECB has the weapon of the printing press. And he said, if the institution refuses to EFSF banking license, it could ultimately end up losing. "The EFSF can not buy as many bonds that the ECB did, simply because it has limited resources.And if it's not effective, then the ECB will continue to buy the debt of the States, "says strategist at Natixis. But according to Jean-Louis Mourier, the ECB has no additional role as that is his. "It's not really within its jurisdiction to be the savior of Europe. She has already done much. "He said the key lies rather in a" greater federalism "across Europe.

Paris and European stock markets turn around on the rise

October 12, 2011 - 10:15 am Comments Off

European shares, which declined during the first hour and a half of transactions, have turned upward Wednesday mid-morning, with the cyclical, in the hope that European leaders would find means to agree on measures to facing the euro debt crisis, despite the "no" of the Slovak Parliament to strengthen the EFSF.

In Paris, around 9:10 GMT, the CAC 40 gained 0.77% to 3177.81 points, after losing more than 1% in early trade. The index has crossed an area of ​​strength identified by analysts graphics around 3130 points.The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index is 0.75% and 0.44% Eurofirst 300.

The leaders of the member parties of the Slovak government were to meet Wednesday resigned those of the main opposition party, the Smer to negotiate support for the project to strengthen the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), announced a spokesman of the party the majority.

Greece can avoid bankruptcy if itself and the other European countries stick to their agreement to reduce debt, said the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Jean-Claude Trichet.

The euro hit a high of three weeks vis-à-vis the dollar, the trend had also returned in the hope of a solution to the crisis.Around 11:00, the European currency is trading at 1.3663 / 1.3647 dollars against 66 the previous day in the afternoon.

Cyclical stocks are leading the gains, including mining, driven by the rise in metal prices. The indices of the car gains 2.4%, largest increase sectoral and commodity index 0.7%, while the two indices showed the largest declines in early trading. The bank index is stable.

The next European summit postponed to October 23

October 10, 2011 - 9:25 pm Comments Off

The Summit of Heads of State and Government of the European Union initially planned Oct. 17 will be postponed to October 23, time to have new findings on the situation of Greece and the recapitalization of banks, said Monday the president European Council Herman Van Rompuy.

This report is also expected to have new conclusions on strengthening the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), he added.

"This schedule will allow us to finalize a comprehensive strategy on the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area covering a number of issues related to it," he said.

Finance ministers of the euro area (Eurogroup) and the European Union (Ecofin) will meet before October 23, he said.

A source explained that the delay was due in part to the fact that the report of the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the progress of the sanitation program of Greek public finances is not yet available.

"The leaders want to be able to act on the basis of the results of the report of the troika, which was not ready in time for the original date," said one EU source."We believe that the postponement is due to a request from Paris than in Berlin."

Greece said on Monday it had completed its meetings with the inspectors of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank for the release of a tranche of assistance Athens needs to avoid bankruptcy by a month.

Another source said that EU officials in charge of organizing the meetings had begun to make contact with the Member States to set a new date.

"They go around to all delegations to see if anyone is able to postpone the summit," she said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced Sunday they will present by the end of a response "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area, which should go through a recapitalization of banks in Europe.