The players in the credit market begin the second half hoping to disappear or at least diminish the negative impact of the crisis of sovereign debt in the eurozone, which has largely contributed to the resurgence of risk aversion in the second quarter.
This crisis, which does not seem to have exhausted all its reserves, has hurt all risky assets, starting with the shares losing 7% to 19% since the beginning of the year in Europe.
Corporate bonds (corporate credit) have also suffered, premiums (spreads) having substantially eliminated.But they broadly maintain performance of 3.6% since the beginning of the year, while government bonds from all countries, took 2.4%.
"The second quarter of 2010 defeated the job right the first quarter due to the escalation of the crisis of sovereign debt.Risk aversion has increased rapidly, all assets have suffered (…) Credit spreads have strayed far beyond their level of early 2010, "credit strategists explain the General Society in their quarterly report.
Also taking stock of the quarter, analysts of Raiffeisen Capital Management noted that the credit offers "indisputably positive returns" to the beginning of the year.
But they add that with the sharp decline in bond rates – including German rates that serve as reference in the euro area – linked to the flight to quality stocks, "the potential of absolute return is now very limited."
"The high yield bonds (high yield bonds), the positive fundamentals, seem more attractive," they say.
Groupama Asset Management, as Societe Generale predicts a slowdown of the economy, promote investment grade credit and approach "stock picking" for high yield.
TIGHTENING OF SPREADS
Amund Asset Management, a leading European asset management, which is more optimistic about global growth, also favors the credit.
The sovereign crisis has largely closed the secondary credit market. The primary market, which had started on a flying in January led by financials, has been almost nonexistent from mid-April but has shown signs of lethargy output.
"The market recovered slowly and now spreads are improving.We believe that sovereign issues have less impact on the market and the spreads will be tighter at the end of the year compared to levels earlier this year, "say the strategists of Societe Generale.
After a very active quarter on the primary market, they are reviewing their forecasts down significantly from private bond issues to take into account also the small traditional activity in the third quarter.
They now expect 110 billion on non-financial corporate issues in 2010, or 55% less than in 2009 which was a record year where businesses, faced with tighter bank credit due to financial crisis, have use the market to restore their balance sheets.
They no longer need as use the market given the low investment costs, a lack of mergers and acquisitions and the continued improvement of treasury already abundant.
Societe Generale brings its projected emissions of senior debt of financial companies from 200 to 150 billion euros for 2010, against 152 billion in 2009. For emissions of subordinated debt, the forecast is reduced from 33 to 20 billion euros, against 17 billion in 2009.