News & Financial Advice

The number of unemployed in Germany fell in August to its lowest level since November 2008, thus establishing the conditions for continued growth in household spending needed to recover more balanced economy.

The Federal Labour Office said on Tuesday a drop of 17,000 job seekers in seasonally adjusted data (SDA) between July and August, whose number was reduced to 3.193 million.

This decline is however slightly less than that envisaged by economists to Reuters, who had anticipated a decline of 20,000.

In July, the decrease in the number of unemployed was 21,000 according to revised figures, against 20.000 originally announced.

The unemployment rate remained steady in August, and in line with expectations at 7.6% of the workforce.

On the employment front, Germany seems to fare better than its European partners, since the rate of unemployment in the euro area remained unchanged in July at 10%.

The German government has also been criticized by other countries, including France, who believe that Berlin does not enough to stimulate domestic demand, which would be favorable for exports of country partners.

"SUCCESS STORY"

"The impressive performance of the labor market can become a real success story if it eventually leads to a recovery in private consumption," said Carsten Brzeski, of ING Financial Markets.

"This is not only the decline in unemployment bodes well for private consumption but also job creation. Since the beginning of the year, the trend in employment is still growing," says he.

Berlin, however, reflected in an austerity plan intended to save 80 billion euros over the next four years.

"The U.S. economy is very bad right now," he told a press conference Heinrich Alt, the Federal Labour Office.

"There are a lot of risks.Until now the trend is stable but we can not ignore that the situation is more fragile than other periods of recovery. "

Economists estimate that slower growth should however not too cripple the labor market, while in the second quarter of the German economy grew at its fastest pace since the country's reunification in 1990.

"The economy will not be able to maintain these high growth rates. The pace will slow in the fall and next year.But the slowdown will not be strong enough to have a significant impact on the labor market, "says Eckart Tuchtfeld, Commerzbank.

In unadjusted data, the number of unemployed fell from 4,000 in August to 3.188 million against 3.192 million in July for an unemployment rate unchanged at 7.6%.

The Federal Office of Statistics for its part announced that the number of people working in Germany had increased from 40,296,000 in June to 40.305 million in July.

* Chart the evolution of unemployment in Germany:

r.reuters.com/nec48n

The month is September is historically the less buoyant year for Wall Street.And this year, economic indicators expected during the first days of the month will put the nerves of investors challenged at risk to initiate a new downtrend.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost nearly 13% since April, gradually accumulating as disappointing economic indicators which have fueled fears of "double dip" relapse into recession after the 2008 crisis -2009.

But the benchmark index of the place New York has so far found strong support around the threshold of 1,040 points, while penetration of the support triggering a wave of purchases.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured the markets at least temporarily, saying Friday that the Fed was ready to act if the economic situation deteriorates. But indicators coming days may revive concern.

"The indicators tend to be consistently to be below expectations," said Nick Kalivas, equity analyst for MF Global."I think that these indicators will trigger new sales next week."

Monthly statistics of the labor market expected Friday should show that 99,000 jobs have been destroyed in August, partly due to the end of temporary contracts linked to the decennial census, while job creation in the private sector should not exceed 42,000.

Until then, the ISM index of purchasing managers in industry and services will probably reflected a further slowdown in business growth.

The S & P 500 tested the threshold of 1040 points on two occasions during the past week but each time he finished the day up.This media has systematically encouraged buyers to return to the market over the past 10 months the index has not marked down so only once and briefly, in July.

DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM

The S & P 500, primary references many managers and analysts, finished Friday at 1064.59 points. If he drove the support of 1,040, it could fall in the range of 1010-1020 points.On the upside, he ran into resistance from its 14-day average at 1076.65, which limits its potential for recovery.

In the options market, this situation encourages the purchase of "put" on the S & P 500, which entitles the holders to sell futures on the index at a price fixed in advance.

"The overall feeling of investors in the options market has become very skeptical, purchases could go beyond the call buyers," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical analyst for Schaeffer's Investment.

The ratio "was able to call" used to measure changes in the general sentiment of the market, stood at 0.61 on Thursday, against 0.59 in average over the last 21 meetings.

Beyond the technical factors, investors will also monitor the statements of managers of major companies such as General Electric and Boeing at the conference "Global Industrials Unplugged" organized by Morgan Stanley.

On Friday, the semiconductor giant Intel cut its revenue forecast for the current quarter. Investors have largely ignored this warning, the Intel action ending the day up, but new estimates of this type could undermine the morale of the market.

Faced with such a combination of risk factors, many investors may take their time before returning to the market.Especially since September is historically the worst month for the three major indexes on Wall Street.

The wait will be promoted in the coming days by the prospect of a weekend of three days with the celebration of Labor Day Monday, September 6.

For Scott Marcouiller, head of technical strategy at Wells Fargo Advisors, a "rally" seems unlikely in the current context.

The growth of the U.S. economy in the second quarter was much weaker estimated initially at 1.6% annualized 2.4% originally announced cons, particularly penalized by the higher increase in imports for 26 years, published revised statistics show Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters on average expected a downward revision even more pronounced at 1.4%, mainly due to higher imports and slower recovery in business inventories. (See)

Export growth was revised to 9.1% for the second quarter, while the previous estimate reported an increase of 10.3%.Imports have them, increased by 32.4%, against 28.8% in the first estimate.

Following this publication, futures on U.S. indexes have increased their gains, while European markets are back in positive territory.

Heineken, the world's third largest brewer, said Wednesday a larger increase than expected half-year net income, reducing costs offset declining sales of beer in Europe and North America.

The Dutch group, whose main brands are Heineken and Amstel, saw sales volumes fall 2.3% on a comparable basis in the first six months of the year, but lower costs, the prices of raw materials and financial burdens, and the contribution of its joint ventures have enabled him to increase its net profit by 17% to 621 million euros.

Twelve analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast an average result of 595 million.

In the exchanges of Amsterdam, Heineken action reduced its gains at midday, after gaining more than 2% in the morning and signed one of the most Shakers in the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index.

Some analysts suggest the group's exposure to the austerity measures in Europe to explain the slowdown.

Despite his good half, Heineken said to be cautious about the prospects of the beer market in Europe and the United States due to continued weakness in consumer spending in general and announced fiscal austerity plans.

Its sales volumes should continue to grow in parallel in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

LITTLE IMPACT OF THE INCREASE OF GRAIN

The results presented Wednesday included two months on the contribution of the activities of FEMSA Mexican beer, bought by Heineken in order to increase its presence in emerging markets.

Last year, Heineken has done a little more than half its sales in Western Europe. On Wednesday, he assured that the integration of FEMSA is proceeding satisfactorily and that it should generate synergies in the second half.

"Cost savings are slightly higher than expected, the contribution of FEMSA, too," said Trevor Stirling, an analyst at Bernstein Research.

"I do not see why the second half would be worse than the first.This should not be as bad in Eastern Europe and this should improve the United States (…) The fundamental dynamic is healthy. "

The group said growth forecasts of at least 10% of its net earnings over the whole year, indicating that volume trends in Latin America, Africa and Asia, as well as price increases , continue to have an impact on profitability.

The CEO of Heineken, Jean-Francois van Boxmeer, described the first half of "robust" and added that the recent rise in grain prices, driven by drought in Russia, would have little impact on the consolidated because purchases are concluded a year in advance and are largely covered before harvest.

"For the part that we have to cover, we must wait until the market calms down," he said during a teleconference.

Lindt & Sprungli has increased its net profit in the first half but remains cautious for the year 2010 because of the volatile commodity prices and foreign exchange.

Net income was posted at 24.8 million francs (18.8 million euros) in the first half, almost tenfold from 2.7 million achieved a year earlier, said Tuesday the Swiss chocolate.

Analysts polled by Reuters on average expected 20.4 million.

"Despite the excellent results of the first half of 2010, Lindt & Sprungli sticks to what it was made public in March 2010, the company said in a statement, citing an economic environment not yet fully consolidated and conditions still volatile.

It confirms expected this year organic growth of 5% to 7% and operating profit (EBIT) of 300 to 340 million francs.

The EBIT after exceptionals jumped by 40.7% in the first half, to 33.9 million francs, against 26.8 million expected by the market. Turnover increased 7.9% to 1056.6 million (against 1.043 million expected), after 979 million in the first half of 2009.

In value terms, the group notes that most of the chocolate market grew moderately in the first half, while in terms of volumes, it continues to see a certain stagnation.

The French energy group GDF Suez is interested in acquiring sites for storing gas sold by Exxon Mobil and Shell and recovered approximately one billion euros, Le Figaro reported Saturday.

Citing a source close to GDF Suez, the daily wrote that the French group is competing in this issue with the infrastructure management subsidiaries of Deutsche Bank, Axa and Prudential.

GDF Suez declined to comment, saying it fails to confirm or invalidate this information.

Shell and Exxon have sold their joint ventures German gas storage BEB Erdgas and Erdoel last June.

While GDF Suez already has 600 million cubic feet of storage in Germany, the company chaired by Gerard Mestrallet will see its capacity increased to approximately 1.5 billion cubic meters if she can buy the two sites Uelsen Harsefeld and north-west of the country, "said Le Figaro.

Germany is the third market of the French group in terms of gas supply.

The source quoted by the newspaper also reported that GDF Suez continued interest in the Polish energy market and remained in contention for the redemption of Enea, the third power in Poland.

Enel has announced plans to launch the initial public offering (IPO) of its affiliate company specialized in renewable energies over the last two weeks of October.

The Italian group of community service, the actor in the sector the most indebted in Europe, hopes to raise between three and four billion euros in bringing to market a minority stake in Enel Green Power, which could be the largest such operation in Europe this year.

"The IPO will take place in the second half of October," said a spokesman for Enel Friday.

The banks involved in the operation on Friday met Chief Financial Officer of Enel, Luigi Ferraris, to discuss the case, said the spokesman, adding that the company continued with its parallel search for a buyer for participation .

This dual approach (dual track) means that in theory, Enel could abandon at the last minute to rate its subsidiary if the sale of OTC was a realistic alternative to public offerings.

"At the meeting with the banks this morning, the focus has been on the IPO, but this does not mean that the company abandoned its dual-track approach," said the spokesman.

Sources have told Reuters that the international coordinators of the IPO were Mediobanca, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Intesa Sanpaolo.

The leaders of the transaction are JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, BBVA and Unicredit.

Wheat prices on the Chicago market gained nearly 8% in plenary on Thursday, near their highest level in two years, following the announcement by Russia to stop its exports of cereals.

The current drought in Russia, one of the worst in the history of the country, devastated crops in several regions, which causes several days a soaring wheat prices on international markets.

Investors are afraid that pressure on this market over the coming months in the absence of a major world exporters.

FAO, United Nations Organization for Food and Agriculture, on Wednesday reduced about 4%, or 25 million tonnes, its forecast for world wheat crop for 2010.

If it considers that the offer is sufficient for now, she warned that "if the drought in the Russian Federation continues, this could pose problems for winter crops in this country, with potentially serious implications for deliveries World wheat in 2011 and 2012.

The benchmark price of wheat in Chicago jumped 82% since June 9

On Thursday, panic buying of investment funds and traders on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) also focused on corn and soybeans, which gained 2.6% and 0.8%.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Thursday the suspension of exports of cereals and processed agricultural products between August 15 and December 31, a decision that applies to contracts already signed.

He has confirmed information previously reported by Russian news agency Interfax, which had triggered the wave of purchases.

"The announcement of Putin panicked everyone (…).Nobody knows how far we could go, "said Paul Haugen, Vice-president of Newedge USA.

At midday in the U.S., the futures contract on wheat for September delivery gained 60 cents, its highest increase allowed to 785.75 cents, the highest level these last 23 months by the maturity nearest market.

DISTORTIONS

"I would not be surprised if it took 60 or 70 cents extra, even more during the next session," said Joe Bedore, the brokerage firm FC Stone in Chicago.

Kazakhstan, another major wheat producer in the Black Sea basin, said anticipating a fall of 35% of its harvest and study by the end of a request from Moscow to reduce its own exports.

International trading giant Cargill said he expected that such trade barriers distort the global wheat market.

In the European market Euronext, the benchmark November contract on wheat milling peaked Thursday at 236 euros before ending the session at 223.25, up 6.8% on the day.It was up nearly 60% since late June

Wheat has not yet regained its record levels of 2008, when prices in Chicago had exceeded 13.30 dollars a bushel, boosted by fears of a global food crisis.

Some analysts also believe that the current increase is overstated, noting the high level of global supply after two consecutive years of record crops.

The absence of Russian wheat in the coming months could also benefit other major exporters, U.S. or Europe.

"A Case of Russian exports would distribute maps of the international wheat market," said one European trader."This would open up enormous opportunities for new sales in Western Europe and the United States."

But the rise in food prices may be exaggerated, says a French professional, for whom the market is driven by purely financial factors.

"When the market (Chicago) won a dollar in four days, not for fundamental reasons," said he. "The decline, if it occurs, will be equally severe."

The European Commission announced that it authorized the repurchase of the French specialist of the PPE Sperian by the American conglomerate Honeywell, as the operation does not affect competition.

The transaction represents 1.4 billion dollars (1.06 billion euros), a sum which includes the takeover of Honeywell debt of 300 million euros Sperian.

The European Commission has estimated that all Honeywell-Sperian will face a significant number of competitors.

The American group, who beat the investment fund Cinven for redemption Sperian has developed on the segment of protective equipment in recent years. He acquired Norcross Safety Production including $ 1.2 billion in 2008.

Arkema plans to double its EBITDA this year after a second quarter marked by record sales amid robust demand in Asia and recovery in North America.

The chemist has done on the previous quarter sales of 1.6 billion euros, up 38%.At constant perimeter, sales rose 27%.

It's his best performance since its IPO in May 2006.

"The level of first half performance allows us to review our annual target of strong EBITDA to rise, which should exceed 600 million euros (…) approximately double the EBITDA reached in 2009," said the CEO of Arkema, Thierry Le Henaff, in a statement.

In the second quarter, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came out to 241 million euros, more than tripling the profit for the period of 2009 and similar growth of 76% over the first three months year.

Arkema has posted a net profit group share of 119 million euros in the quarter, while it had a loss of 114 million a year earlier.

The Arkema share closed Monday at 34.985 euros, giving a market capitalization of around two billion euros. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has taken more than 30% after more than doubled in value over the whole of 2009.